WHEN WILL THE NUCLEAR HOODOO BE BROKEN? We may be on the very edge of receiving an answer to that daunting question.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Iran now possesses enough enriched Uranium to produce nine nuclear weapons. The first target for such weapons would undoubtedly be Israel.

From its inception in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been committed irrevocably to the elimination of the “Zionist Entity”. At no time since has it been possible to state with any confidence that the Iranian leadership possesses the wisdom to recognize that any attempt to fulfil this mission, especially by using nuclear weapons, would lead to the destruction of their nation.

When God commands, the faithful obey. Not even the certain destruction of the entire Iranian population would deter the ayatollahs. In their eyes, the sudden admission of so many millions of martyrs would simply expand the dimensions of paradise.

A simple review of Iranian foreign and military policy amply confirms that Israel has always been, and remains, the target. Why else would it be ringed by Iranian proxies: Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis? Who are the terrorists’ missiles aimed at, if not the “Zionist Entity”?

And it isn’t exactly a big target. At 21,000 square kilometres, Israel is roughly two-thirds the size of Otago. The detonation of nine nuclear weapons in such a narrow sliver of the earth’s surface would be an extinction level event. An act of genocide, pure and simple.

Love him or hate him, Benjamin Netanyahu is not about to sit back and wait for the Iranians to affix nine even remotely functional nuclear warheads to nine of their already proven long-range ballistic missiles and initiate the firing sequence. Before that happens, he will do all within his power to destroy them – along with the scientific and industrial infrastructure that made them possible.

Netanyahu’s problem, and it’s a fateful problem, is that Iran’s nuclear facilities cannot be destroyed using conventional weaponry. Buried deep, encased in vast reinforced concrete shells, these facilities can withstand even the biggest of bunker-busting bombs. Israel can damage the Iranians nuclear infrastructure, but it can’t destroy it. Unless …..

….. it uses its own nuclear weapons.

And what would happen then?

Well, the whole world (except for the United States) would stand aghast. The United Nations General Assembly would expel Israel to the deafening cheers of the “global majority”. Antisemitism would spike across the globe. Jews everywhere would be vilified, attacked and killed. Synagogues would burn. To protect their Jewish populations from this global pogrom, western nations would be forced to initiate the rigorous suppression of Israel’s declared enemies. It would not be a happy time for Muslims – or for leftists infatuated with keffiyehs and Palestinian flags.

But would Israel suffer nuclear retaliation from one or more of the other nuclear-armed states?

Probably not.

The precise location of Pakistan’s very small number of nukes is well known to the United States, the United Kingdom, India and Israel. They would likely be taken out by conventional missiles immediately following the Israelis’ use of their own nuclear weapons.

Kim Jong Un might think about it, but the “we know exactly where you are standing as you take this call” warning from Beijing would produce almost instantaneous second-thoughts. China is not about to risk its 3,000-year-old civilisation being reduced to radioactive ashes just so North Korea’s Supreme Leader can strut about in his big-boy fatigues. Besides, the fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran would suit Beijing’s long-term strategic objectives admirably.

Even if they could cobble together an effective means of delivering their meagre supply of nuclear weapons, neither the UK nor France is about to punish Israel for getting rid of the world’s No. 1 sponsor of terrorism.

Shri Narendra Modi, no friend of Shia fanaticism, or Sunni fanaticism, for that matter, will be in no hurry to expend India’s limited nuclear stockpile on Islam’s greatest foe – especially if Pakistan’s nukes have just been taken off the board by New Delhi’s new friends in Washington.

Which just leaves the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin. Possessor of the world’s largest and most sophisticated stock of nuclear weapons (even if the USA is fast catching-up!) what would the Russian leader do?

That’s easy. He would launch his own nuclear strike against Ukraine. Not a big one, of course, Russia’s strike would be roughly the same size as Israel’s in terms of kilotonnage. A “tactical” attack, in other words, directed at decapitating the Ukrainian political and military leadership, destroying critical infrastructure, and terrorising the Ukrainian population into unconditional surrender.

And the rest of the world – what would it do? In every one of the world’s 193 nations, there would be shock, and awe, and abject terror. Two tactical nuclear strikes in quick succession could hardly produce anything else. Like a possum in the headlights of a fast-approaching SUV, the world would stand, frozen, as the two other serious nuclear powers contemplated their next move.

Which would be what? With Ukraine devastated, what would the United States and China do?

China would be pleased that, at last, the Russo-Ukrainian War had been brought to a conclusion acceptable to its volatile ally in the Kremlin. Nor would Beijing be fearful of a devastating American response. After all, the United States could hardly condemn Putin for doing precisely what its own ally, Netanyahu, had already done. Admittedly, the USA would likely now abandon Europe and devote its entire attention to dealing with the “Chinese threat”. But, Washington was doing that anyway. In its neo-isolationist “America First” heart, the Trump Administration has already said good-bye to its Nato allies. Putin is welcome to them.

And the land of the free? The home of the brave? What would Uncle Sam be thinking? He would likely be thinking “Thank Christ! At last the eighty-year-old nuclear hoodoo has been lifted. Now, having nuclear weapons is useful for something other than threatening mutual and assured destruction. Finally, if we have to – hell, if we want to – the USA is free to actually use the fucking things – again! Let the word go forth from this time and place. Let the world wise up. Nobody’s going to incinerate the planet for the sake of Ukraine. Or Poland. Or the Baltic states. Or Eastern Europe. Or Western Europe. Got it people? Shit just got real!”

And the ghost of Volodymyr Zelensky, as his Valkyrie bears him upward to Valhalla, will cry out to the terrified planet he is leaving behind:

“Be warned, humanity, and be guided by Ukraine’s example. If you find yourselves in possession of nuclear weapons, never, ever, give them up.”

A version of this essay was posted on The Good Oil website on Monday, 16 June 2025.